My issue this year isn't the first weekend. I'm quite confident in all my Sweet 16 picks, including 12 New Mexico State. My problem is that I have no effing clue how to pick this year's winner. With tough teams scattered all over the bracket, the 1 seeds are no lock to get to the Final Four. Let alone the death matches the 2's and 3's face in the Sweet 16 if seeding holds.
My way of picking national champions varies based on the year. Sometimes you have to go with the favorite, others you gotta surprise some people, and sometimes you look for the easiest matchups. The best way, obviously, is trying to find a combination of all three: favorite, sleeper and lack of resistance.
How can you have a favorite and sleeper? Well it's pretty easy actually. The key is picking a team that has potential to win it all of the shortlist, which is usually 6-8 teams. Of those finalists, you gotta pick an uncommon champion based on the status of others around you. This enables you to make more mistakes in the opening rounds, as the championship round is usually weighted to the point where you can be 15+ points back of the leader and still win your pool if you pick right later. Basically, if half the pool has the #1 overall seed winning, you might want to look around at some other options.
With that explained, who's the most economic pick this year?
*This isn't an endorsement*
If we look at the first category, the favorites, we can narrow the field down to, in my mind, 10 teams: Virginia, Arizona, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Xavier, North Carolina and Michigan. I can GUARANTEE that one of these teams will cut down the nets on April 2.
From there we have to go with a sleeper AMONG these 10 teams. By sleeper I don't mean a Cinderella story. I mean the team that is still really good but for whatever reason people aren't picking to win the whole thing. That gets rid of Virginia, Villanova and Michigan State. Of all the predictions I've seen, these three teams are probably 60% of the picks. It must be acknowledged that Villanova probably has the easiest road to the Final Four, but their status as a high seeded media favorite puts a damper on their easy East region.
We are now down to 7 teams: Arizona, Purdue, Kansas, Duke, Xavier, North Carolina and Michigan.
Our last category is resistance, or the toughest road to the Final Four. Obviously, Arizona has a really hard Sweet 16 game against Virginia, not to mention a tough second round against Kentucky. They also have the whole FBI thing going on too. They're out. 6 teams. Purdue is good, but they have to beat Villanova to make the Final Four. They also have been struggling down the stretch. Out. 5 teams. Duke has Marvin Bagley. He's really good, but do we 100% trust them against Michigan State in the Sweet 16? No. 4 teams left. Xavier is a tough 1 seed, but they get Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and most likely Missouri in the second round. For a team that plays down to its competition, that's risky. 3 teams. Kansas has a walk to the Elite Eight, but the winner of Duke and Michigan State won't be easy to get past. 2 teams left. We are now down to North Carolina and Michigan. This matchup occurs in a Sweet 16 in the West Region. Xavier is the weakest 1 seed, so it's a solid presumption that the winner of this game is most likely to get to the Final Four. In this game, I lean North Carolina because they already slapped Michigan earlier in the year. So with that all being decided. The most economic pick to win the National Championship is:
NORTH CAROLINA.
They aren't in the top tier of favorites, they are a reliable sleeper team among the best teams, and they have an easy path to the Final Four.
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