I'll start by listing some of my notable upset picks. I'm not really explaining the reasoning because I don't have much of it. It's just a feeling for the most part.
11 San Diego State over 6 Houston
The Aztecs are coming off a fantastic Mountain West tourney victory, and I'm not uber confident in the 3rd best team in the American.
13 Marshall over 4 Wichita State
I like Dan D'Antoni's vibe and offense. Marshall also has an awesome nickname and a great shade of green.
12 New Mexico State over 5 Clemson
I was really impressed with NM St at the Diamondhead back in December, and I don't know how Clemson can rebound well enough without Donte Grantham.
13 Charleston over 4 Auburn
Probably my biggest stretch. Auburn hasn't been the same since losing Anfernee McLemore.
So as you notice, I don't really have many huge upset picks in the first round. I think that since the top teams aren't as good this year, then the bottom teams must be worse than usual as well.
Now for my long-awaited Final Four. Long-awaited by me, at least. I've been waiting to predict this year's Final Four since...uh...last year's Final Four, and I can't believe the day has finally come.
South Region
In the South I have a Sweet 16 of Virginia vs Arizona and Miami vs Cincinnati. I then have a Virginia-Cincy Elite Eight with Cincinnati going to the Final Four. I really like Virginia's defense, but the loss of De'Andre Hunter really hurts them. Cincinnati has the second best defense in America and Gary Clark is turning into a monster on offense.
WINNER: Cincinnati
West Region
My Sweet 16 is total chalk. Xavier vs Gonzaga and North Carolina vs Michigan. I really like the Zags to get by Xavier, and I'm taking Michigan over UNC. I'm riding high on momentum this year, and Michigan currently has a boatload of it. They'll beat Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
WINNER: Michigan
East Region
Villanova vs West Virginia and Florida vs Purdue are my Sweet 16 matchups. Villanova and Purdue hold seed as both get to the Elite Eight, where Villanova edges past them to get to the Final Four. The Wildcats have the easiest route to the Elite Eight, so I'm inclined to pick them here. Jalen Brunson is getting all the headlines for this team, but it's Mikal Bridges who will lead this team to a Final Four.
WINNER: Villanova
Midwest
This is a loaded region with Kansas, Duke and Michigan State, but I like the Spartans getting out alive in this one. They'll beat Duke in the Sweet 16 and Kansas (who knocks off New Mexico State in the Sweet 16) in the Elite Eight to get there. The combination of size and athleticism will get them to the Final Four.
WINNER: Michigan State
Final Four
Cincinnati vs Michigan
Both of these teams have top 10 defense in the country. In these cases you look at which team has the better offense, and I think that's Michigan. Mo Wagner can spread Cincy out, and I like Michigan's bench better.
WINNER: Michigan
Villanova vs Michigan State
The guard play of Villanova and the fact that they don't turn the ball over has me taking the Wildcats here. Size means nothing if you can't use it properly. Nova does a good job of denying the post despite their small squad, and I think that'll rattle the Spartans.
WINNER: Villanova
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Michigan vs Villanova
In this case, I like momentum. Michigan is clicking at the right time. Their defense and rebounding is really strong, and they are shooting extremely well too. Call me crazy, but I ride with the underdog here. Go Blue.
WINNER: Michigan
There you have it. Those are my picks for this year. Let's hope we get an awesome tournament regardless if these are right or not.
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